Re-think Indian HSR
According to the feasibility reports prepared by international consultants, HSR in India is expected to cost around Rs.250 crore per km. The roughly 415km Mumbai-Ahmedabad corridor is expected to cost around Rs.86,000 crore, so we can just imagine what the "diamond quadrilateral" project connecting the 4 major metros would cost. More importantly, passenger tariffs are expected to be around Rs.8 per km or Rs.3200 for this short Mumbai-Ahmedabad and services should cover many trains running every hour to be financially viable. With even air fares of under Rs.2000 in this sector, these numbers clearly do not suggest viability. Most probably, therefore, fares will be subsidized under the guise of "initial promotional offers" or "viability gap funding" (VGF). Such over-ambition in favour of some vanity projects designed to show-off advanced projects although only benefiting elite sections like showing off 5-star hotels, have come crashing in other developing countries too. Argentina embarked on a bold HSR venture in 2006 linking its three largest cities Buenos Aires, Rosario and Cordoba over a 720km line. In 2008, President Kirchner proclaimed that the country would soon be known for "development and modernity." Fortunately for the country, the project was shelved before it could swallow up much-needed development funds. Argentina has now taken up a revised Chinese-funded project for a major upgrade and renovation of the national rail network, without bullet trains, but with "high-performance" trains with average speeds of around 160 kmph. The project will be far less expensive and will impact the entire rail network instead of only a few segments. India would do well to think along similar lines. India is already experimenting with medium-speed trains running at 200 kmph maximum speeds on existing tracks. However, with current tracks getting saturated with bumper-to-bumper traffic along trunk routes, India could also think of a "quadrilateral" of new parallel tracks along the routes connecting the major metros, which could serve high-tariff premium services which existing tracks would be de-congested and serve the vast majority of passengers. All this comes at a time when emphasis is being placed on making rail passenger services viable and self-supporting, with major restructuring being planned for the Railways including unbundling, privatization, and independent regulators fixing no doubt higher fares. 90% of railway passengers travel on 2nd Class Sleeper or lower classes and deserve good quality services for long distance journeys. There are already huge noises being made that the financial health of the Railways is suffering due to subsidies for this class of passengers. Clear signals are being sent out that rail fares will be raised, and a beginning has already been made with so-called "surge prices" for some premium trains. Huge popular pressure needs to be mounted to ensure that lowerincome groups, the rural masses and the salaried middle-classes are not burdened by a spiralling rise in prices for rail services in the days to come. In this scenario, non-viable and elite-oriented Bullet trains which will inevitably call for subsidies of one kind or another, clearly do not find a place and should be withdrawn
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